Deb
07-28-2009, 11:19 PM
T.O. Isn't the Only Show You Should Fear in Fantasy Football Drafts
Posted Jul 28, 2009 10:00PM By Sean Lalley (http://www.fanhouse.com/bloggers/sean-lalley/) (RSS feed (http://www.fanhouse.com/bloggers/sean-lalley/rss.xml))
Filed Under: Draft Advice (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/category/draft-advice/)
http://www.blogcdn.com/fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/media/2009/07/terrell-owens-150mh072409.jpgIt's time to get you ready for your upcoming fantasy football (http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl) drafts. We here at Fantasy FanHouse (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/) continue to provide wall-to-wall coverage and go overtime by digging up deeper analysis.
Are you at all surprised that I even suggest you should fear drafting Terrell Owens (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Terrell+Owens/)? Well, I wanted to at least grab your attention and now that the obvious is out of the bag we can move forward. Every single summer, it's all about selective hearing and consulting our own fears. Yup, no matter what there will always be those handful of guys you wouldn't want to even face the dilemma of drafting. Whether these players are head cases, you fear they can't meet the expectations, are destined for prison, due for an ACL tear or you just plain despise them ... it's never an easy decision.
And so today, I'm taking a look at a few worries on my radar for various reasons.
Marion Barber (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Marion+Barber/), Dallas Cowboys
Oh how I despise and will avoid me some Marion the Barbarian at all costs. Remember how we were all excited last year for Barber to finally be the full-time feature running back in Dallas? Of course, some wondered if his supposed "violent and aggressive" style could translate into a bulk-of-the-carries workhorse. And those of you who questioned it, were right. But not me -- I was sure Barber was going to pack a punch and punch the clock every single Sunday.
Well, he started out hot, but eventually crapped out. He couldn't stay on the field down the stretch when he was needed most by his loyal fantasy owners. He finished well shy of 1,000 rushing yards and managed to top 100 rushing yards only three times all season, while gathering a dismal 23 carries total over the last five weeks of the season. Ouch, I'm still hurting. Perhaps his role was better served as simply the closer.
This season there is talk that he could fall back into that role on this Cowboys offense. It seems to be a run-centric offense they are setting everyone up for. The problem is that Felix Jones (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Felix+Jones/) (if he can stay healthy)can be much better than Marion Barber. If the Jones complex wasn't enough, the Cowboys also have taken a fancy to young Tashard Choice (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Tashard+Choice/). Barber will still be the goal-line back and maybe play the clean-up role, but 20-plus carries per game ain't happening. If you're taking that in the Top 20 ... ouch.
http://www.blogcdn.com/fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/media/2009/07/84240058.jpgDeAngelo Williams (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/DeAngelo+Williams/), Carolina Panthers
I hate to the bearer of bad news, but if you're banking on another 20-touchdown season from DeAngelo Williams, you're gonna be mighty disappointed. The consensus seems to be that most folks are banking on him duplicating his phenomenal season. With an average draft position anywhere from No. 3 through No. 8, everyone appears to be convinced that the Panthers have forgotten about a guy named Jonathan Stewart (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Jonathan+Stewart/). Well, I haven't.
Ah yes, the solid "stud in the making" who battled injuries last season, but still ripped it up when given the touches. It's near impossible for me not to consider Stewart as the best backup/split-carry running back in the entire league. To put it simply, Stewart is gonna be a heavy part of this offense. And with a healthy Stewart intact, that means he'll be seeing a healthy dose of the touches for a team that scored 30 rushing TDs last year.
This is hardly a means to say that Williams is going to suck. That's laughable. Williams will be just fine, but taking him the first round is too much of a leap for me and taking him in the Top 3 reeks of disaster. You want your first-rounder to be an undisputed and uncontested feature back, not somebody who's giving away carries to a young stud. I fear drafting Williams on value alone, because I'd rather someone else overpay for him. Lastly, a little food for thought: only five running backs haveever done the whole 20-touchdown season back-to-back.
Matt Ryan (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Matt+Ryan/), Atlanta Falcons
I think we're all just a little too geeked on what the Falcons did as a whole last year. Sure, I know Matt Ryan was an integral part of the team and helped forge a new attitude in Atlanta. However, when we're talking about fantasy football, intangibles and leadership hold very little water. I'm fully in the camp that Ryan is a budding star and a credible winner, but isn't this bio starting to sound a little bit like Ben Roethlisberger (http://www.fanhouse.com/tag/Ben+Roethlisberger/)? And we all know what little relevance Big Ben holds for fantasy owners.
For me, it's simply a gut call. I think we are heaping too much praise on Ryan's future potential as a signal-caller and his upside, rather than where he is at today. Think of how long it took Tom Brady (http://www.fanhouse.com/tag/Tom+Brady/) to conquer in fantasy football. For years, he was known more as a game-manager that just wins football games and doesn't care about stats.
This Falcons offense figures to be highly geared towards the run with Michael Turner (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Michael+Turner/) and the sneaky Jerious Norwood (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Jerious+Norwood/). Also, when you look back at Ryan's stats last season, 3,440 yards and 16 TDs aren't jumping off the page. You could do worse as a bye week fill-in, but I wouldn't be ready to hand over the keys to Matt Ryan to lead your fantasy team each Sunday.
http://www.blogcdn.com/fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/media/2009/07/antonio-bryant-150mh072409.jpgAntonio Bryant (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Antonio+Bryant/), Tampa Bay Bucs
If you feed me in the paint, I'm gonna lay it in. Bad cliche, but the point is pretty obvious here. Bryant has been a mega-disappointment mostof his life in the NFL. And then out of nowhere he put together a fascinating stretch run last season that left many scratching their heads, but saying "I knew he had that kind of talent all along." Nobody ever questioned the guy's potential, but his attitude was/is another thing.
How comfortable do you truly feel about an eternal headcase on your fantasy team? Do you trust one dominant stretch run and believe that now all is cured? Um, I'm not a buyer. Let's not forget last season was Bryant's absolute last chance, it was make or break. Also, the QB who he built that great rapport with, Jeff Garcia (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Jeff+Garcia/), is no longer around. It's a complete new regime in Tampa this season including the ouster of head coach Jon Gruden. Basically, after bouncing around the league for years -- and being known as a mental crisis -- Bryant found the perfect situation a year ago, but it's been taken from him.
Yes, don't think I'll be going this route. Reports are that Bryant is expecting lower numbers (http://fantasyfootball.com/wr-antonio-bryants-numbers-to-decline/) this season, because the Bucs will spread the ball around more. Sorry, not a vote of confidence from the player himself. Once you sprinkle in that the Bucs wouldn't give him a long-term extension -- you can just feel a regression in the works.
Matt Cassel (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Matt+Cassel/), Kansas City Chiefs
Raise your hand if you remember Steve Bono. OK, you can't put them down -- I can't see you. Anyhow, Bono was a long-time backup for Joe Montana and mainly Steve Young in San Francisco. He was a system guy who filled in admirably for the 49ers when called upon. In 1993 he was decent enough to parlay that into a contract with the Kansas City Chiefs.
In short, he never really lived up to much of the hype. He was never even quite a poor man's version of Young or Montana, rather just a dude named Steve Bono. Aren't we kind of in the same boat with Matt Cassel? I mean, sure, he looked "great" at times last season with the Patriots. But as much as I like Dwayne Bowe (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Dwayne+Bowe/), he isn't Randy Moss (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Randy+Moss/), and neither Bobby Engram (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Bobby+Engram/) nor Mark Bradley (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Mark+Bradley/) is Wes Welker (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Wes+Welker/).
The fear is that Cassel played for an organization with a rock-solid system in place. He wasn't called upon to do too much, and the pressure of being the face of the franchise didn't belong to him. He was playing with a purpose to prove he fit in the league, but now he's happily inked to a long-term deal and he's paid in full. In Kansas City, he is the face of the franchise and a lot is expected of him. Yes, he will have to carry this young team.
Defenses will have studied his techniques and they will know him inside out this season. And so, for my money it's hard to trust a guy who we still hardly know, clinging onto the hype and hoping that he is a poor man's Tom Brady (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Tom+Brady/). As a backup, yes. But not as a fantasy starter with all your chips sitting on him to be the man.
Posted Jul 28, 2009 10:00PM By Sean Lalley (http://www.fanhouse.com/bloggers/sean-lalley/) (RSS feed (http://www.fanhouse.com/bloggers/sean-lalley/rss.xml))
Filed Under: Draft Advice (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/category/draft-advice/)
http://www.blogcdn.com/fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/media/2009/07/terrell-owens-150mh072409.jpgIt's time to get you ready for your upcoming fantasy football (http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl) drafts. We here at Fantasy FanHouse (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/) continue to provide wall-to-wall coverage and go overtime by digging up deeper analysis.
Are you at all surprised that I even suggest you should fear drafting Terrell Owens (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Terrell+Owens/)? Well, I wanted to at least grab your attention and now that the obvious is out of the bag we can move forward. Every single summer, it's all about selective hearing and consulting our own fears. Yup, no matter what there will always be those handful of guys you wouldn't want to even face the dilemma of drafting. Whether these players are head cases, you fear they can't meet the expectations, are destined for prison, due for an ACL tear or you just plain despise them ... it's never an easy decision.
And so today, I'm taking a look at a few worries on my radar for various reasons.
Marion Barber (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Marion+Barber/), Dallas Cowboys
Oh how I despise and will avoid me some Marion the Barbarian at all costs. Remember how we were all excited last year for Barber to finally be the full-time feature running back in Dallas? Of course, some wondered if his supposed "violent and aggressive" style could translate into a bulk-of-the-carries workhorse. And those of you who questioned it, were right. But not me -- I was sure Barber was going to pack a punch and punch the clock every single Sunday.
Well, he started out hot, but eventually crapped out. He couldn't stay on the field down the stretch when he was needed most by his loyal fantasy owners. He finished well shy of 1,000 rushing yards and managed to top 100 rushing yards only three times all season, while gathering a dismal 23 carries total over the last five weeks of the season. Ouch, I'm still hurting. Perhaps his role was better served as simply the closer.
This season there is talk that he could fall back into that role on this Cowboys offense. It seems to be a run-centric offense they are setting everyone up for. The problem is that Felix Jones (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Felix+Jones/) (if he can stay healthy)can be much better than Marion Barber. If the Jones complex wasn't enough, the Cowboys also have taken a fancy to young Tashard Choice (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Tashard+Choice/). Barber will still be the goal-line back and maybe play the clean-up role, but 20-plus carries per game ain't happening. If you're taking that in the Top 20 ... ouch.
http://www.blogcdn.com/fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/media/2009/07/84240058.jpgDeAngelo Williams (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/DeAngelo+Williams/), Carolina Panthers
I hate to the bearer of bad news, but if you're banking on another 20-touchdown season from DeAngelo Williams, you're gonna be mighty disappointed. The consensus seems to be that most folks are banking on him duplicating his phenomenal season. With an average draft position anywhere from No. 3 through No. 8, everyone appears to be convinced that the Panthers have forgotten about a guy named Jonathan Stewart (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Jonathan+Stewart/). Well, I haven't.
Ah yes, the solid "stud in the making" who battled injuries last season, but still ripped it up when given the touches. It's near impossible for me not to consider Stewart as the best backup/split-carry running back in the entire league. To put it simply, Stewart is gonna be a heavy part of this offense. And with a healthy Stewart intact, that means he'll be seeing a healthy dose of the touches for a team that scored 30 rushing TDs last year.
This is hardly a means to say that Williams is going to suck. That's laughable. Williams will be just fine, but taking him the first round is too much of a leap for me and taking him in the Top 3 reeks of disaster. You want your first-rounder to be an undisputed and uncontested feature back, not somebody who's giving away carries to a young stud. I fear drafting Williams on value alone, because I'd rather someone else overpay for him. Lastly, a little food for thought: only five running backs haveever done the whole 20-touchdown season back-to-back.
Matt Ryan (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Matt+Ryan/), Atlanta Falcons
I think we're all just a little too geeked on what the Falcons did as a whole last year. Sure, I know Matt Ryan was an integral part of the team and helped forge a new attitude in Atlanta. However, when we're talking about fantasy football, intangibles and leadership hold very little water. I'm fully in the camp that Ryan is a budding star and a credible winner, but isn't this bio starting to sound a little bit like Ben Roethlisberger (http://www.fanhouse.com/tag/Ben+Roethlisberger/)? And we all know what little relevance Big Ben holds for fantasy owners.
For me, it's simply a gut call. I think we are heaping too much praise on Ryan's future potential as a signal-caller and his upside, rather than where he is at today. Think of how long it took Tom Brady (http://www.fanhouse.com/tag/Tom+Brady/) to conquer in fantasy football. For years, he was known more as a game-manager that just wins football games and doesn't care about stats.
This Falcons offense figures to be highly geared towards the run with Michael Turner (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Michael+Turner/) and the sneaky Jerious Norwood (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Jerious+Norwood/). Also, when you look back at Ryan's stats last season, 3,440 yards and 16 TDs aren't jumping off the page. You could do worse as a bye week fill-in, but I wouldn't be ready to hand over the keys to Matt Ryan to lead your fantasy team each Sunday.
http://www.blogcdn.com/fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/media/2009/07/antonio-bryant-150mh072409.jpgAntonio Bryant (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Antonio+Bryant/), Tampa Bay Bucs
If you feed me in the paint, I'm gonna lay it in. Bad cliche, but the point is pretty obvious here. Bryant has been a mega-disappointment mostof his life in the NFL. And then out of nowhere he put together a fascinating stretch run last season that left many scratching their heads, but saying "I knew he had that kind of talent all along." Nobody ever questioned the guy's potential, but his attitude was/is another thing.
How comfortable do you truly feel about an eternal headcase on your fantasy team? Do you trust one dominant stretch run and believe that now all is cured? Um, I'm not a buyer. Let's not forget last season was Bryant's absolute last chance, it was make or break. Also, the QB who he built that great rapport with, Jeff Garcia (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Jeff+Garcia/), is no longer around. It's a complete new regime in Tampa this season including the ouster of head coach Jon Gruden. Basically, after bouncing around the league for years -- and being known as a mental crisis -- Bryant found the perfect situation a year ago, but it's been taken from him.
Yes, don't think I'll be going this route. Reports are that Bryant is expecting lower numbers (http://fantasyfootball.com/wr-antonio-bryants-numbers-to-decline/) this season, because the Bucs will spread the ball around more. Sorry, not a vote of confidence from the player himself. Once you sprinkle in that the Bucs wouldn't give him a long-term extension -- you can just feel a regression in the works.
Matt Cassel (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Matt+Cassel/), Kansas City Chiefs
Raise your hand if you remember Steve Bono. OK, you can't put them down -- I can't see you. Anyhow, Bono was a long-time backup for Joe Montana and mainly Steve Young in San Francisco. He was a system guy who filled in admirably for the 49ers when called upon. In 1993 he was decent enough to parlay that into a contract with the Kansas City Chiefs.
In short, he never really lived up to much of the hype. He was never even quite a poor man's version of Young or Montana, rather just a dude named Steve Bono. Aren't we kind of in the same boat with Matt Cassel? I mean, sure, he looked "great" at times last season with the Patriots. But as much as I like Dwayne Bowe (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Dwayne+Bowe/), he isn't Randy Moss (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Randy+Moss/), and neither Bobby Engram (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Bobby+Engram/) nor Mark Bradley (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Mark+Bradley/) is Wes Welker (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Wes+Welker/).
The fear is that Cassel played for an organization with a rock-solid system in place. He wasn't called upon to do too much, and the pressure of being the face of the franchise didn't belong to him. He was playing with a purpose to prove he fit in the league, but now he's happily inked to a long-term deal and he's paid in full. In Kansas City, he is the face of the franchise and a lot is expected of him. Yes, he will have to carry this young team.
Defenses will have studied his techniques and they will know him inside out this season. And so, for my money it's hard to trust a guy who we still hardly know, clinging onto the hype and hoping that he is a poor man's Tom Brady (http://fantasyfootball.fanhouse.com/tag/Tom+Brady/). As a backup, yes. But not as a fantasy starter with all your chips sitting on him to be the man.